Africa’s Energy Supply in Times of Geopolitical Turbulence: A Case for Urgent Energy Sovereignty

Energy is a necessity for human and economic development. Its demand and supply are strongly linked to a country’s prosperity. Conventional energy resources are not evenly distributed across the globe; hence, their supply continuity and pricing are heavily reliant on international geopolitics. The more stable the geopolitical environment, the smoother the flow of resources from resource-rich regions (such as the Middle East) to resource-poor regions (such as Africa). Conversely, the more volatile the geopolitics in resource-rich regions, the harder and more expensive it becomes for poorer regions to access these resources. This difficulty in energy access stifles development and worsens the general living conditions in these regions. The recent tensions between the United States and Iran have highlighted how vulnerable regions such as Africa are to geopolitical turbulence and have underscored the need to innovate and reduce reliance on imported energy from conflict-prone regions. 

Africa is a growing continent in many respects, including population and economic development. This growth inevitably leads to increased energy demand. Most African energy systems have historically been built on fossil fuels for power generation, much of which is imported. Although some African countries possess fossil fuel resources, a lack of technological advancement often results in foreign companies entering into contractual agreements that allow them to extract and export these resources outside the continent. As a result, instead of benefiting from their own resources during periods of instability, resource-rich African countries suffer alongside those without fossil fuel reserves. This situation highlights the need to advance technological development within Africa and to revisit the structure of fossil fuel extraction contracts as transition to renewable energies takes shape. 

Africa is home to vast renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, and hydro, which remain largely untapped. Most African countries have a solar energy potential averaging 4.5 kWh/m²/day, which is sufficient for large-scale solar power development. This is particularly notable when compared to European countries that have lower solar potential but more developed solar energy systems. The relatively low electricity access rates in Africa position the continent well to develop its energy systems especially power systemsalong a renewable energy trajectory. While wind energy is not uniformly available across all countries, it is significant in regions such as South Africa, yet it remains underutilized. Similarly, Africa possesses vast hydropower resources. While some large hydropower sites have already been developed, notable projects such as the Inga Hydropower Project still hold immense potential to supply power to multiple countries. Additionally, the extensive river networks across the continent provide strong opportunities for mini- and micro-hydropower systems. 

To address the energy gap and reduce reliance on imported fossil fuel-based power generation, a holistic approach is needed, one that addresses policy, technology, and human capacity gaps within Africa. Policies should shift toward incentivizing renewable energy development and deployment, while also promoting investment in technology and capacity building. It is worth noting that the reduction in renewable energy equipment costs has contributed to increased installations across the continent. However, development still lags behind demand growth, and the clean energy access gap remains wide. 

Furthermore, Africa is endowed with vast mineral resources that are critical for the global energy transition. However, these minerals are often exported in their raw form, depriving the continent of the opportunity to generate much-needed revenue for energy system development. This further emphasizes the need to advance technological development within Africa to enable value addition and industrial growth. 

Africa continues to suffer disproportionately from geopolitical tensions that disrupt global energy flows, despite being endowed with abundant renewable energy resources. Recent geopolitical developments should serve as a catalyst for accelerating technology development, renewable energy deployment, and policy reform across the continent. Africa must take advantage of its own resources to build a resilient and sustainable energy future.